Image from Newmont.
Investors are exiting exchange-traded funds that track the shares of gold-mining companies, a sign that the high-flying sector’s allure may be dimming even as prices for the precious metal remain strong.
Gold-mining stocks have soared this year, outpacing the 24% climb in gold prices and leaving the broader S&P 500 Index in the dust as investors sought haven assets amid worries over global trade and massive government spending. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF, the largest exchange-traded fund tracking the group, is up 57% year to date.
That performance hasn’t stopped investors from heading for the exits in recent months. Van Eck’s fund has seen net outflows every month so far this year, except for May. Others are feeling similar selling pressure: The Sprott Gold Miners ETF saw outflows in May even as bullion prices set a record high.
“People are actually selling their shares of gold-mining ETFs into the rally,” said John Ciampaglia, CEO and senior managing director at Sprott Asset Management LP. “We’re not seeing new money, as a whole, come into the sector.”
A range of factors is fueling the outflows. Years of budget overspending by gold-mining companies have made investors wary of holding their shares for too long, even though some miners have grown more disciplined on expenditures, said Greg Taylor, chief investment officer at PenderFund Capital Management Ltd.
“Most people view it as a trading sector rather than a buy-and-hold sector,” he said.
The furious rise in mining shares may have also left traders seeking gains in other corners of the market, such as tech stocks and bitcoin, Taylor added. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index is up 10% since the end of April, compared to an 8.4% rally in the Van Eck ETF.
BofA Securities analysts urged investors to “buy oil, not gold” in a May 29 research note, saying the two asset classes “are trading at polar ends of the relative value spectrum.” The bank noted that the S&P 500 is trading at its highest multiple relative to the price of West Texas Intermediate crude since the pandemic, making a good entry point for oil, while trading in-line with its historical average multiple relative to gold.
Central banks
Still, proponents of precious metals have been quick to point out the sector’s more attractive features. Among these is how the shares are valued relative to companies’ earnings: despite their recent rally, mining stocks are relatively cheap on a historical basis, as the rising gold price has juiced profits. Shares of Newmont Corp., the biggest miner by market capitalization, trade at 13 times future earnings, compared to an average of 20 over the last five years.
Scotia Capital Inc. analyst Ovais Habib wrote in a Thursday note that gold-mining stocks are trading as if their total gold resources are valued at $1,454 per ounce, well bellow the spot gold price, which stood at $3,380 an ounce on Thursday afternoon.
Brooke Thackray, a research analyst at Global X, said lower input costs in the form of cheaper oil and diesel prices can help miners’ returns in coming quarters by boosting cash flow.
Another supportive factor is steady gold buying by central banks, which some analysts expect to continue pushing gold prices higher and buoy miners’ shares. Central banks have been buying 80 metric tons of gold each month, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate. Taken together, central banks and sovereign wealth funds have been mopping up 1,000 tons a year, at least a quarter of annual mined production, according the World Gold Council.
“They’ve been in the market and they’re really price-indiscriminate,” Thackray said.