Investing through a systematic investment plan (SIP) for 10 years is often considered a way to navigate stock market volatility and build long-term wealth. But does investing consistently for a decade guarantee positive returns? Historical data shows that even a 10-year SIP could have ended with a loss, particularly in small-cap stocks.
According to a research by Edelweiss Mutual Fund, the worst 10-year rolling SIP return for the Nifty Smallcap 250 Total Returns Index (TRI) was -0.13%. In comparison, the Nifty Midcap 150 TRI delivered a minimum annualised return of 6.37%, while the Nifty 100 TRI, representing large-cap stocks, generated at least 5.07%.
The findings highlight the differences in returns across market capitalisations. While small-caps recorded the highest maximum return among the three categories, mid-caps delivered the strongest average returns over both five- and ten-year SIP periods.
Can a 10-year SIP still deliver negative returns?
The Edelweiss Mutual Fund data shows that small-cap SIPs experienced the widest variation in returns over ten-year periods.
The Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI recorded a minimum annualised return of -0.13% and a maximum of 22.20%. Its average rolling return stood at 15.01%.
Mid-caps performed better on average. The Nifty Midcap 150 TRI generated an average annualised SIP return of 17.61%, with returns ranging between 6.37% and 23.60%.
Large-cap index delivered an average return of 12.95%, with the minimum and maximum returns standing at 5.07% and 17.02%, respectively.
|
Index |
Minimum return |
Maximum return |
Average return |
| Nifty 100 TRI | 5.07% | 17.02% | 12.95% |
| Nifty Midcap 150 TRI | 6.37% | 23.60% | 17.61% |
| Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI | -0.13% | 22.20% | 15.01% |
| Source: Edelweiss Mutual Fund. Ten-year rolling monthly SIP returns, annualised. Data as of 30 September 2026. | |||
The figures show that small-cap SIPs could deliver significantly higher returns during favourable market periods, but they also experienced weaker outcomes when markets were unfavourable.
The negative minimum return is particularly important because it demonstrates that even a decade of regular investing does not eliminate the possibility of losses.
However, these are index-based historical calculations, not the actual returns of individual mutual fund schemes.
What happens when the SIP period is reduced to five years?
The difference between large-, mid- and small-cap SIPs becomes even more pronounced over five-year periods.
According to the report, the worst five-year rolling SIP return for the Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI was -16.81%, compared with -6.71% for the Nifty Midcap 150 TRI and -3.03% for the Nifty 100 TRI.
At the other end, small-caps delivered a maximum annualised return of 38.26%, higher than mid-caps at 36.14% and large-caps at 22.95%.
Yet mid-caps again led in average returns, generating 17.64%, compared with 15.48% for small-caps and 13.01% for large-caps.
|
Index |
Minimum return |
Maximum return |
Average return |
| Nifty 100 TRI | -3.03% | 22.95% | 13.01% |
| Nifty Midcap 150 TRI | -6.71% | 36.14% | 17.64% |
| Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI | -16.81% | 38.26% | 15.48% |
| Source: Edelweiss Mutual Fund. Five-year rolling monthly SIP returns, annualised. Data as of 30 September 2026. | |||
The data reveals two important patterns. First, small-cap SIPs experienced considerably larger swings between their best and worst outcomes. Second, mid-cap SIPs delivered higher average returns than small-caps despite the latter’s higher maximum returns.
Why a longer SIP period does not guarantee profits
Comparing the five- and ten-year figures shows that longer investment periods generally produced better worst-case outcomes in the historical sample. However, the improvement did not eliminate losses in every category. Small-caps remained marginally negative in their worst ten-year observation.
Another important finding is that mid-caps outperformed small-caps on average despite small-caps recording higher maximum five-year returns. Over ten-year periods, mid-caps led on both average and maximum returns.
The Edelweiss analysis uses rolling SIP returns, which measure the performance of investments started at different points in history rather than relying on a single start and end date. The calculations assume monthly investments at the end of each month.
For mutual fund investors, the findings underline the importance of distinguishing between the benefits of investing regularly and the risks of the underlying asset class. SIPs spread investments across market levels, but they do not protect investors against market losses.