After sharp volatility triggered by the 2023 short-seller report and subsequent regulatory probes, Adani’s USD bonds have rebounded sharply. According to BofA, spreads across the Adani complex have tightened by 80–325 basis points year-to-date, now trading below or close to pre-indictment levels for most issuances.
Adani group has 13 USD bonds with total outstanding amount of $5.7 billion including 7 from Ports and logistics business (ADSEZ and ADINCO), 4 from electricity utilities (ADTIN and ADANEM) and 2 from renewable power projects (ARENRJ and ADGREG).
Notably, active liability management — including buybacks of ADSEZ, ADTIN, and ADANEM bonds — has contributed to this recovery. Despite the tightening, BofA argues that Adani bonds still offer relative value compared to sovereign and corporate investment-grade indices in India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and China.
BofA noted that even in the event of renewed funding pressure, a slowdown in capex coupled with EBITDA accretion could actually support credit metrics, underlining the group’s operational flexibility.
Bank of America is ‘Overweight’ on several Adani bonds — including ADSEZ 31s/32s, ADINCO 31s, ADTIN 36s, and ADANEM 30s — citing strong credit fundamentals and attractive relative value. It remains ‘Marketweight’ on the rest of the 13 bonds, citing better opportunities elsewhere within the group or limited visibility on the timeline of regulatory resolutions.
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