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    Home»Bonds»Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data’s Implications
    Bonds

    Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data’s Implications

    July 11, 2024


    Today’s CPI data was hotly anticipated, to say the least, and it did a borderline heroic job of advocating for a huge drop in rates.  Not only did the core M/M number drop to an unrounded 0.065 (implies core annual inflation UNDER 1.0%) but shelter inflation dropped to the lowest levels since the start of the pandemic, roughly in line with the bottom of the pre-pandemic range.  Those ingredients would have allowed the market to cook up a much bigger rally than we saw today, even though we saw the 2nd biggest mortgage rate drop in 2024.  A slower pace is more sustainable.  Markets want to do things right this time.



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