After adding over $2 trillion in market value since its April 2025 lows, Nvidia Corp. NVDA faces a moment of truth on Wednesday, when it reports second-quarter earnings after the bell.
The stakes couldn’t be higher—not just for Nvidia, but for the broader tech space and market-tracking ETFs that have ridden its rally.
Expectations Are Sky-High—And So Are The Risks
Wall Street is betting big on a blockbuster quarter.
According to Benzinga Pro estimates, Nvidia is expected to post earnings per share of $1.01, up a staggering 48.5% from the 68 cents it reported in the second quarter last year. Revenue is forecast to reach $46.02 billion, which would mark a 53.2% jump from the $30.04 billion recorded in the same quarter of 2024.
Options markets are bracing for a volatile move. According to Goldman Sachs, Nvidia options are pricing in a swing of 6.2%, either up or down, following the report.
That’s slightly above the stock’s average earnings-day move of 5.9% over the past eight quarters.
What Could Move Nvidia?
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider said the key to Nvidia’s stock reaction won’t just be whether it beats estimates, but how much it raises guidance—and what it says about China.
“Expectations are high and investors we have spoken with are almost universally long heading into the print,” Schneider said. “That raises the degree of difficulty for second-half commentary and guidance.”
Schneider flagged three major areas to watch on the call. First, the shape and pace of the Blackwell chip ramp will be critical, as any upside in third-quarter guidance is likely to hinge on shipments of these new AI chips, particularly outside of China.
Second, the company’s update on China could prove pivotal—clarity around Chinese revenue contributions and related margin implications may help reset or reaffirm current investor expectations.
Lastly, gross margins will be under the microscope, especially with Nvidia expected to benefit from approximately $2.5 billion worth of previously reserved H20 chip inventory, which could provide a meaningful boost to profitability in the second half of the year.
Which ETFs Are Poised To React?
Nvidia is a major component in many ETFs—and its earnings often send shockwaves across markets. Historical patterns show that tech and semiconductor ETFs have the strongest reactions to Nvidia’s results.
Based on Nvidia’s last eight earnings reports, these five non-leveraged ETFs have shown the strongest historical moves and are worth watching closely.
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH: average absolute move (up or down) 2.6%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX: 2.2%
- ARK Innovation ETF ARKK: 2.0%
- Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK: 1.6%
- Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ: 1.2%
Read Next:
Photo: Shutterstock