Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?

1 Hour, 44 Min ago

Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday’s econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and perhaps some technical support seen as early as yesterday when 10yr yields topped out at 4.16), today provided that rally.

- ADP Employment
  - 42k vs 25k f’cast, -32k prev
- ISM Biz Activity (Oct)
  - 54.3 vs — f’cast, 49.9 prev
- ISM N-Mfg PMI (Oct)
  - 52.4 vs 50.8 f’cast, 50.0 prev
- ISM Services Employment (Oct)
  - 48.2 vs 47.6 f’cast, 47.2 prev
- ISM Services New Orders (Oct)
  - 56.2 vs 51.0 f’cast, 50.4 prev
- ISM Services Prices (Oct)
  - 70.0 vs 68.0 f’cast, 69.4 prev

09:53 AM

Fairly sharp rally at 8:20am CME open with more buying as stocks sell off. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.097

01:56 PM

very flat near strongest levels. MBS still up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 7.6bps at 4.084

04:18 PM

Still flat into the after hours session. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 7.3bps at 4.088

Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?