Gold had a 20-year head start. It might not matter.
Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, projects that US spot Bitcoin ETFs could see their assets under management triple that of gold ETFs within three to five years. The driving force behind the prediction is straightforward: younger investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as their preferred store of value, and the money is following their conviction at a speed that has caught even optimistic forecasters off guard.
The numbers that matter
Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Within roughly 18 months, they had accumulated approximately $120 billion in total AUM, with net inflows surpassing $38 billion by mid-2025. To put that velocity in perspective, initial industry forecasts pegged first-year inflows at $10 billion to $15 billion. The actual figure blew past the high end of that range comfortably.
Gold ETFs, by contrast, took over a decade to reach comparable asset levels. The first gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), debuted in 2004. It took roughly 22 years from that inception for gold ETFs collectively to hit milestones that Bitcoin ETFs are approaching in a fraction of the time.
Balchunas draws a useful parallel between the two asset classes. Both Bitcoin and gold are non-yielding assets. Neither pays a dividend or generates cash flow. Their prices are driven almost entirely by market sentiment, macro uncertainty, and the collective belief that they serve as hedges against inflation or systemic risk.
Gold and Bitcoin are not fighting, they’re carpooling
One of the more interesting data points undercutting the “Bitcoin vs. gold” narrative: investors are buying both. In the week ending August 26, 2026, Bitcoin and gold ETFs together attracted a combined $7 billion in inflows over just five trading days. GLD pulled in $3.4 billion during that stretch, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) received $1.5 billion.
James Seyffart, another Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, has noted that Bitcoin ETFs could eventually surpass gold ETFs in part because of broader portfolio use cases. Gold’s role in a portfolio is relatively narrow: it’s a hedge, a store of value, and occasionally a trade during geopolitical turmoil. Bitcoin has started to occupy a wider band, functioning as a macro hedge for some, a tech-adjacent growth bet for others, and a liquidity vehicle for traders who want 24/7 market exposure through regulated wrappers.
What triple actually means
Both asset classes are characterized by historical periods of explosive gains followed by painful drawdowns. Bitcoin’s volatility profile is significantly more aggressive than gold’s, which means the same sentiment-driven inflows that push AUM higher can reverse quickly during risk-off episodes.
The ETF wrapper solved Bitcoin’s biggest distribution problem. Before January 2024, buying Bitcoin meant navigating exchanges, custody solutions, and a regulatory gray zone that kept most financial advisors on the sidelines. Now it sits inside the same brokerage accounts as everything else, with the same tax reporting and the same compliance infrastructure.
Gold ETFs went through a similar transformation two decades ago. Before GLD launched, gaining gold exposure meant buying physical bars, dealing with storage costs, or navigating futures markets. The ETF made gold accessible to any investor with a brokerage account. The $38 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs suggests the early adopter phase is over.