By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) and the broader crypto market are facing renewed pressure, reversing some of gains made after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about tariff-driven inflation .
President Donald Trump is reportedly scheduled to speak at Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in New York later, with traders keen to hear how the administration plans to acquire BTC in a budget-neutral manner. Don’t get too excited, the likelihood of such an announcement remains low.
Trump is more likely to reiterate his aspiration to make America the “crypto capital of the world,” and even this may overwhelm markets.
On a more positive note, renewed interest in U.S.-listed spot ETFs supports market strength. On Wednesday, bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net inflow of $11.8 million, a fourth consecutive day of positive flows, according to Farside Investors. In contrast, ether spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $11.7 million, extending a streak of withdrawals to 11 straight days.
“Several catalysts continue to support a bullish outlook,” Blockhead Research Network said. “The U.S. government exploring budget-neutral ways to accumulate bitcoin could be a game-changing factor for this cycle. Additionally, solana futures being added to the CME is a major bullish indicator for altcoins, potentially increasing institutional exposure to SOL.”
Speaking of on-chain flows, data from IntoTheBlock reveals that whales now hold some 62,000 more BTC than they did at the beginning of the month, indicating a resurgence in accumulation following nearly a year of declining balances. XRP whales have also been buying over the past two months.
For its part, the SUI token has remained resilient, looking to build on its Wednesday gains in the wake of Canary Capital Group, an institutional crypto trading and management firm, filing for a Sui exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the SEC.
In wider market news, a domain claim page for Hyperlane, an open interoperability framework, surfaced, sparking speculation of a potential token airdrop on social media.
Traditional markets offered mixed cues, with dollar-yen staring at a death cross pattern, teasing a major surge ahead in the Japanese currency, which is seen as an anti-risk holding. Meanwhile, copper neared a record high in a positive sign for risky assets. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- Macro
- March 20, 8:00 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision.
- Bank Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
- March 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases employment data for the week ended March 15.
- Initial Jobless Claims Est. 224K vs. Prev. 220K
- Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1890K vs. Prev. 1870K
- March 20, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases Q4 employment data.
- Unemployment Rate Prev. 6.9%
- March 20, 7:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications releases February consumer price index (CPI) data.
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3.2%
- Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.5%
- Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4%
- March 21, 6:30 a.m.: The Bank of Russia is expected to announce its interest rate decision.
- Key Rate Est. 21% vs. Prev. 21%
- March 20, 8:00 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $14.13 million.
- March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $240.90 million.
- March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.06 million.
- April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $158.56 million.
- April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $117.81 million.
- April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $12.31 million.
- Token Listings
- March 20: Jupiter (JUP) to be listed on Binance.US.
- March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- Frog-themed tokens jumped Thursday, with a KEKIUS MAXIMUS token zooming 96% after Elon Musk posted a picture housing a “Kekius Maximus” portrait on X.
- He responded “ok” to a user’s suggestion that he change his display name to “Kekius Maximus,” amplifying attention on frog-related memes and tokens. The name is linked to existing frog-themed coins like pepe, featuring a frog dressed up as a Roman gladiator.
- Musk’s endorsement sparked speculation about whether he’s hinting at backing the existing KEKIUS token or just joining the day’s festivities — albeit creating volatility in such tokens.
- The phrase surged in visibility when Musk first made Kekius Maximus his display name on X on Dec. 31.
- The Kek connection also nods to the “Cult of Kek,” a tongue-in-cheek internet phenomenon linking the term to an ancient Egyptian frog-headed deity of chaos and darkness.
- The eponymous token issued at the time jumped to a market capitalization of nearly $200 million shortly after issuance only to crater more than 95% after the initial hype subsided.
- Memecoins tend to surge when Musk references them due to his massive influence and cult-like following. Such tokens are often sentiment-driven and thrive on such attention turning Musk’s playful nods — like a mere mention — into price catalysts.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC global futures open interest has increased to $13.3 billion, the highest since March 4, Coinglass data show. ETH open interest remains below $2 billion.
- Basis in the CME’s BTC one-month futures has dropped below an annualized 5% despite overnight price gains, suggesting a lack of participation from institutional traders. ETH basis remains around 5%.
- DOGE, APT, XMR, BCH, XRP, LTC, ADA and NEAR see negative cumulative volume delta, implying net selling amid the price bounce.
- Deribit’s BTC options have flipped bullish, with front and near-dated calls now trading pricier than puts. ETH, however, lags in sentiment.
Market Movements:
- BTC is down 0.26% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $83,576.60 (24hrs: +2.07%)
- ETH is down 2.85% at $1,980.15 (24hrs: +0.3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.96% at 2,711.65 (24hrs: +3.04%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 3.02%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0043% (4.74% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.46% at 103.90
- Gold is up 0.19% at $3,039.20/oz
- Silver is down 0.19% at $33.49/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed on Wednesday -0.25% at 37,751.88
- Hang Seng closed on Thursday -2.23% at 24,219.95
- FTSE is down 0.33% at 8,678.09
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.92% at 5,456.82
- DJIA closed on Wednesday +0.92% at 41,964.63
- S&P 500 closed +1.08% at 5,675.29
- Nasdaq closed +1.41% at 17,750.79
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.47% at 25,069.21
- S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.77% at 2,495.85
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.22%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% at 5,724.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.16% at 19,919.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 42,290.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 61.60 (0.04%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02327 (-1.90%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 804 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $48.76
- Total Fees: 5.28 BTC / $453,536
- CME Futures Open Interest: 154,690 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 27.9 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.91%
Technical Analysis
- Nvidia (NVDA), the Nasdaq heavyweight, has triggered a head-and-shoulders breakdown, hinting at a bullish-to-bearish trend change.
- The breakdown offers bearish cues to risk assets.
- The 90-day correlation between NVDA and bitcoin is 0.6.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $304.23 (+7.43%), down 2.58% at $296 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $189.75 (+4.75%), down 2.16% at $185.20
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.70 (+3.57%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.53 (+3.81%), down 1.68% at $12.32
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.78 (+5.14%), up 0.39% at $7.75
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.68 (+8.23%), down 0.12% at $8.67
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.01 (+5.53%), down 1.12% at $7.92
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.20 (+6.67%), down 6.12% at $14.27
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $40.04 (+12.82%), down 3.25% at $38.74
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.75 (+34.67%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flow: $11.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $35.88 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1,119 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$11.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.46 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.450 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- Coinbase’s layer 2 scaling solution Base maintains its lead over other chains as the platform with the highest dollar value of coins received through crypto bridges.
- Berachain and Solana take the No. 2 and No. 3 positions with Arbitrum at the bottom with most outflows.