It may not feel like it, but 2025 has been a record year for retail traders. It’s been even busier than 2021, when GameStop mania was at its peak.
Compared to last year, retail activity is up 50%. That’s likely indicative of more volatility in 2025, especially the nearly 20% drawdown from February to early April. Those shifting sands gave rise to investment strategies that have defined the year since.
So what are the trends that have dominated the year? The equity-strategy team at JPMorgan that focuses on retail investors has narrowed it down to three main ones:
1. A dip-buying bonanza
The firm says there were three major dip-buying events for day traders this year:
-
The sudden rise of DeepSeek in January, and the resulting sell-off in US AI stocks
-
A multi-week unwinding of momentum trades in March that sunk equities
-
Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement in early April, which dealt the S&P 500 its worst day in five years
Since these were all concentrated in the first four months of 2025, about 75% of current stock-market positioning occurred during that period, with Nvidia and Tesla the biggest beneficiaries, JPMorgan found.
Retail investors have been less ardent about dip-buying in the weeks since, opting to largely stay on the sidelines during weakness two weeks ago. JPMorgan also noted that day traders have been net sellers this week as valuation concerns have flared.
2. ETFs are dominating
They’ve made up 75% of retail-trader inflows in 2025 so far. The chart below shows that, after the February-to-April volatility subsided, single-stock buying slowed down in favor of ETFs and options.
This contrasts with the meme-stock era, which saw a larger portion of purchases in single stocks.
JPMorgan points out that one fund in particular that’s attracted immense retail-investor interest in 2025 has been the SPDR Gold Shares ETF. Interest in that coincided with a more-than-60% surge in the price of the metal, through an October year-to-date high.
3. Purchases of the 30 top AI stocks are coming at the expense of the broader market
JPMorgan calls the rest of the universe the “SPX 470,” which they say retail traders have been selling in order to finance purchases of AI stocks. That’s played a role in the record concentration we’ve seen in mega-cap tech names.
It remains to be seen whether these dynamics will flip on signs the AI trade is reaching a point of exhaustion. It’s a test we could see play out soon, with valuation concerns flaring again, even after an unabashedly strong Nvidia earnings report.
Read the original article on Business Insider