XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets
Despite the market risk aversion, the short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook remains cautiously bullish, with a target price of $2.5. Increased XRP utility and robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs remain key drivers.
Additionally, US lawmakers’ optimism that they will pass crypto-friendly legislation reaffirmed the bullish longer-term price targets:
- Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
- Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.
Key Downside Risks to the Bullish XRP Outlook
Several events could challenge the positive outlook. These include:
- US President Trump increases tariff threats to acquire Greenland.
- The Bank of Japan announces a hawkish neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), signaling multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, similar to events in mid-2024. A yen carry trade unwind would invalidate the short-term outlook.
- US economic indicators and the Fed are dampening bets on an H1 2026 rate cut.
- US lawmakers roadblock the Market Structure Bill, delaying crypto legislation.
- XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.
These events would weigh on risk assets, pushing XRP below $1.85, which would signal a bearish trend reversal.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
XRP slid 4.86% on Tuesday, January 20, following the previous day’s 0.39% loss, closing at $1.8872. The token tracked the broader crypto market cap, which dropped 4.67%.
A seven-day losing streak left XRP trading below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bearish bias. However, the bullish fundamentals continue to counter technicals, keeping the token above key support levels.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $1.85, $1.75, and then $1.50.
- 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0561.
- 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3066.
- Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.
Viewing the daily chart, a break above $2.0 would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. Meanwhile, a bullish trend reversal would pave the way toward $2.2. A breakout above $2.2 would bring the 200-day EMA into play.
Importantly, a sustained move through the EMAs would reaffirm the bullish medium- and longer-term price targets.