Weekly inflows were the lowest in the nine-week run, but outperformed the US BTC-spot ETF market. According to Farside Investors, US BTC-spot ETFs saw $680.9 million in net outflows for the reporting week ending January 9. Significantly, BTC dropped from a January 5 high of $95,075 to a January 9 low of $89,363, weighed by fading bets on a March Fed rate cut and outflows.
While BTC’s pullback weighed on XRP and the broader crypto market, a continued divergence in XRP-BTC flow trends could lead to a decoupling, reinforcing the positive outlook for XRP.
Steven McClurg, Canary Funds CEO, recently fueled speculation about a potential decoupling, stating:
“XRP, I believe, is going to be a divergent asset, actually. […] Altcoins typically follow Bitcoin, but there are a handful of assets that I do believe will diverge in this manner and just watching XRP perform as everything’s going straight down and we continue to get inflows every day and continue to hold up, I believe that it could look like another peak in XRP in 2026, when most of other crypto assets are going to be down.”
Despite recent losses, XRP has gained 13% year-to-date. Meanwhile, BTC and the broader crypto market cap have risen by a more modest 3.5% and 4.2%, respectively, signs of a potential decoupling.
XRP Bullish Price Outlook and Targets
The progress of the Market Structure Bill and robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs reaffirm the cautiously bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target.
Meanwhile, increased real-world utility and optimism over the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill reinforce the positive longer-term price targets:
- Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
- Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.
Key Risks to Bullish Scenario
Several scenarios could unravel the positive outlook. These include:
- The Bank of Japan declares a hawkish neutral interest rate (1.5%-2.5%), indicating multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate would likely trigger a yen carry trade unwind, derailing the short-term outlook.
- US economic data and the Fed are cooling bets on an H1 2026 rate cut.
- Market Structure Bill faces partisan challenges.
- XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.
These scenarios would likely trigger a sharper decline, pushing XRP below $2, which would indicate a bearish trend reversal.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
XRP slipped 0.19% on Saturday, January 10, following the previous day’s 1.37%, closing at $2.0886. The token tracked the broader crypto market cap, which dropped 0.11%.
Five consecutive daily losses left XRP below the 200-day EMA, while remaining above the 50-day EMA. Despite the EMAs suggesting a bullish near-term but bearish longer-term bias, the fundamentals are bullish and dominate.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $2.0, $1.75, and then $1.50.
- 50-day EMA support: $2.0727.
- 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3359.
- Resistance levels: $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.
Viewing the daily chart, a break above $2.2 would bring the 200-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 200-day EMA would indicate a bullish trend reversal, paving the way toward the $2.5 resistance level.
Crucially, a sustained move through the 200-day EMA would reinforce the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.