On March 10, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tweeted that 83 percent of the 6,200 projects run by USAID globally would be shut down. While it wasn’t stated exactly which programs were to be terminated, a leaked document from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee provides some insight. This document reveals that at least two Kazakh civil society projects promoting civic engagement and LGBTQ rights have been cut, losing nearly $6 million in funding.
As U.S.-backed projects close, China has been mentioned as a possible successor. In fact, China is already investing large sums into Central Asia, and specifically Kazakhstan.
Despite China pouring vast sums of money into Kazakhstan, its financial influence remains far from matching that of the United States. Unlike the U.S., the bulk of Chinese funding does not come in the form of aid projects, but instead as loans. As a result, the scope of Chinese projects differs significantly from those previously run by USAID. Instead of civil society and media initiatives, Chinese funds are allocated primarily to infrastructure, energy, and industrial development.
Despite many differences, both countries provide aid in the realm of health. A recent report by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) stated that the agency has begun focusing on what it calls “small and beautiful” projects. The term, originally used in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), reflects China’s shift toward smaller-scale, high-impact projects. One such focus is improving local health and medical care. These grants could be particularly significant for Kazakhstan, where health-related aid disbursements have decreased by almost 80 percent from last year. However, the likelihood of China providing foreign aid to Kazakhstan remains low, as it has not done so in the past, despite the close economic ties between the two countries.
While CIDCA has held multiple meetings with Kazakh representatives in recent years, there is no evidence of direct aid being granted. Instead, these meetings have focused on expanding collaboration, particularly regarding loans and investments into other countries. Although Kazakhstan is unlikely to receive much aid from CIDCA in the near future, other aspects of the BRI are already directing funds toward Kazakh projects.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Kazakhstan received multiple financial contributions from Chinese state actors, mainly within the railroad industry, to prevent disease outbreaks. Since the end of the pandemic, however, such direct aid has largely ceased, with most Chinese projects now structured as loans or investments. These projects are primarily tied to the BRI, which aims to strengthen China’s connections with Europe and Africa, much like the historic Silk Road.
One example of this is the state-connected firm Sinopec, which invested approximately $1.25 billion last year in a petrochemical unit. In addition to producing sought after raw materials for plastic products, the plant is expected to generate 850 permanent jobs. And while some projects are financed as semi-private investments into Kazakhstan, many are also driven by state loans. An example of this is when the Bank of China lent Kazakhstan $100 million to build the Big Almaty Ring Road, completed in 2023, covering one-eighth of the total cost. Beyond its goal of reducing air pollution in Almaty, the project also created stable jobs.
While the loans given to Kazakhstan have put the country $9 billion in debt to China, these along with massive investments have bolstered Kazakhstan’s development in the sectors of infrastructure and energy.
Whether these financial commitments can generate the kind of soft power influence U.S.-backed civil society projects did remains uncertain.
As China’s economic involvement in Kazakhstan continues to grow, the shift from grants to loans highlights a key distinction in its approach compared to the United States. While Beijing prioritizes long-term economic partnerships over traditional development aid, the future of Kazakhstan’s civil society remains in question. If U.S.-backed initiatives remain defunded, it is unlikely that China will step in to fill the gap, leaving Kazakhstan facing a challenging road ahead in fostering democratic governance and human rights.