BTC/USD Weekly Chart (Coinbase) – Source: TradingView
BTC had respected this key line multiple times in the past few months until it finally succumbed on November 10 as the price dropped below $100,000.
The last time this breakout happened, it resulted in a 62% loss for the top crypto in a period of around 9 months.
If this historical pattern unfolds similarly and BTC drops by a similar magnitude, the worst-case scenario of this bearish cycle sees the token hitting $36,000 by August 2026.
A break below $78,000 would confirm this prediction as the price would form a bearish structure. The next stop in that case, after a necessary retest from below, would be $58,000.
For now, the price can still retest the $100,000 area. A rejection of a move above this mark would also provide confirmation that this bearish scenario is unfolding as expected.
Meanwhile, looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin seems to have been in consolidation since late November, trading within a relatively predictable range of $84,000 and $94,000. This could be an indication that investors are accumulating the token ahead of its next big move.
This makes the $84,000 area the key support to watch in the next few days. A break below could set in motion a move toward $78,000 based on the path we set forth in a higher time frame, meaning a total downside risk of 8%.