The fund believes that the market is currently waiting for clarity from Trump. The fund house is participating in both large and mega-large caps, while selectively increasing small-cap exposures in most of their equity schemes.
The fund house’s ‘predictive analytics‘ endorsed that a trading bottom was around the corner by the end of February. Since then, the benchmark index—Nifty 50—has rallied around 8%.
Indian equity, which has been in a corrective phase for the past few months, saw the ‘Risk-off’ cycle peak in July 2024. The fund house’s ‘Predictive Analytics’ models now suggest that Quant Mutual Fund has covered 69% of the journey, and therefore, select buying opportunities are visible in sectors such as infrastructure, hotels & hospitality, pharmaceuticals, materials, retail, and telecom, according to a monthly release by Quant Mutual Fund.
“We are focused on long-term growth and are committed to managing your investments with utmost care and diligence. Even as we have grown over the years, we have managed to keep our investor concentration risk low, thereby creating a more balanced and sustainable foundation for our portfolios,” said Quant Mutual Fund.
While commenting on global equities, the fund house said that, as indicated in the March factsheet, U.S. equity is facing challenging times, with Nasdaq, in particular, underperforming. Although April is seasonally bullish, the current vulnerability in U.S. equity is still high, as our quant complacency indicators reached new all-time highs in January and have started correcting since then.Also Read | Consistent performers: 51 equity mutual funds deliver over 15% CAGR in 3,5, and 7 years
“Global equity flows toward the U.S. after reaching an ATH are now witnessing massive outflows, particularly in the passive segment. Therefore, an important high is already in place in U.S. equity, especially Nasdaq. Although a near-term pullback is probable, the medium-term trend remains weak, and April could be as challenging as March 2025. Overall, there is a mixed trend for global equity, with a more constructive outlook for Europe and China. The ongoing correction globally is in a consolidation phase, not a bear market, as perceived by disheartened investors. For a deep bear market scenario, we would require tighter global liquidity, which is not the case, as global liquidity remains quite strong,” the fund house said.
Commenting on the currency, Quant Mutual Fund said that although the DXY index has achieved the medium-term upside target set by the fund house, it has since corrected meaningfully despite Trump’s noise and narratives. “Seasonally, April is a bearish month for the Dollar Index, but DXY remains our biggest ‘Perceived Risk.’ Our ‘Predictive Analytics’ models are showcasing a rising risk regime after the January peak in USD. We should watch out for global currencies and global yields as they will dictate the 2025 macro outlook,” said the release.
For crude oil, the fund house believes that April is seasonally bullish, and downside is very limited. However, the upside could be quite meaningful this month, and market participants are prepared for a short-term spike. Even for Bitcoin, the trends are bullish into mid-April. Given current global uncertainties, Bitcoin would be an ideal investment for high-risk appetite global investors, and multiple risk appetite indicators are endorsing constructive views in the coming weeks, the fund house mentions.
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“For precious metals, and Gold in particular, April is seasonally bullish. Despite our cautious outlook from a near-term perspective, Gold is now trading at an ATH, and thus has the potential to rally further before we see a sharp correction by the end of Q2 2025,” the release said.
“Our multivariate models are showcasing rising downside volatility risks for precious metals. However, our medium-term and long-term views remain constructive, and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated toward precious metals,” it adds.
The monthly release further reads: “This has fostered innovation and more opportunities for diverse perspectives within our decision-making process. It also aligns with our core values of transparency, long-term growth, and fostering meaningful relationships with a wide range of investors. We remain committed to driving value for all of our stakeholders and ensuring that our business continues to thrive in a dynamic market environment.”