Stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) closed lower on Thursday as investors eagerly await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole on Friday. T. Rowe Price Global Head of Multi-Asset and Chief Investment Officer Sébastien Page joins Market Domination to share his market outlook.
Page characterizes the current market as “expensive,” noting that bullish investors are focusing on declining rates and rising earnings, while bears point to a slowing economy and high valuations. Given these conflicting views, Page maintains a neutral stance on the market.
“When I say neutral, I mean fully invested in stocks and bonds at a level that matches your long-term risk tolerance. Now is not the time to take up more risk or less risk,” Page explains to Yahoo Finance.
With a Fed rate cut on the horizon, Page suggests bonds (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) may enter a period of outperformance. He cites historical data: out of 12 Fed cutting cycles, “bonds outperformed cash by an average of 8%, so when rates come down, bonds typically do better than cash.” Page advises investors to gradually shift their cash into core bonds.
Regarding Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole address, Page notes, “Markets want to hear that cuts are coming, markets want reassurance.” He adds an intriguing perspective on Powell’s likely approach: “You know what Powell wants? I think he wants to satisfy the markets. He doesn’t want to rock the boat.”
However, Page notes Powell typically remains “more steady than the markets.”
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This post was written by Angel Smith