Michael James McDonald is a stock market forecaster, author and former Senior Vice President of Investments at what is now Morgan Stanley. He is a long-term advocate of the theory of contrary opinion and the measurement of investor sentiment when forecasting price direction.His first book, ” A Strategic Guide to the Coming Roller Coaster Market” was published in July of 2000, three months before the top of the dot comm market. On its cover was written, “How a new model of the stock market predicts the end of the 18-year bull market (1982-2000) and the beginning of a new era.” The “new era” was to be a long-term (roller coaster) trading range market, which did materialize between 2000 and 2009.A second book titled, “Predict Market Swings With Technical Analysis” was published by Wiley and Sons in 2002.Then, on August 31st, 2010, in a Seeking Alpha article titled: “The 10 Year Trading Range Is Over – The ‘Final Stampede’ Has Begun”, he called an end to the ten year trading range market and the start of another long-term bull market, which also came about.He says, “It’s long been observed that 50% or more of a stock’s price can be driven by the emotions of fear and greed alone. A universal warning sign is when ‘too many’ investors expect the same thing. When ‘too many’ investors expect a stock to go up, it generally goes down – and vice versa. The key is having metrics that measure when ‘too many’ investors are expecting something. This is what the Sentiment king has developed over the years.”Through his company the Sentiment King, he continues to study and measure investor psychology in an effort to successfully forecast major stock trends – and help others see them too.
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