SpotGamma’s Brent Kochuba says one specific number explains why tonight’s Nvidia earnings report will move far more than just one stock, and the S&P 500 options market is already showing the strain.
SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba appeared on CNBC on Wednesday morning to share his belief that NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) Q2 earnings today, August 26, is the most important news event in this earnings cycle. His argument centers on one number that captures how deeply the chipmaker has been absorbed into passive and factor-based products.
Kochuba referred to how 803 U.S.-listed ETFs hold NVIDIA shares: “803 is the number, which to me is staggering. And so when you look at the impact of the stock to just the entire U.S. stock market ecosystem, that’s why it’s so important to the market and why we watch so closely.” His argument is that the entire market is somewhat riding on Nvidia’s Q2 results tonight.
Why Nvidia’s Q2 Earnings Today Could Move the Entire Market
NVIDIA is the world’s largest company by market cap at a market cap of over $5 trillion. Its presence across 803 U.S.-listed ETFs means a single earnings report can ripple through broad index products, sector funds, thematic AI baskets, momentum sleeves, and dividend or quality screens that have grown into the name. When NVIDIA moves, dealer hedging and index-level gamma positioning shift with it, which is why Kochuba said the S&P options market is showing what he called the fingerprints of one company’s earnings report.
“You can see the fingerprints of Nvidia earnings in the S&P 500 options market. The S&P 500 is pricing in an extra quarter point of movement for tomorrow because obviously Nvidia reports after the close,” Kochuba said. NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 2027 results after Wednesday’s close, so the volatility premium the S&P options market is carrying applies to Thursday’s session. For context, Kochuba noted that Jackson Hole is pricing a half point of volatility for Friday.
Options Traders Pricing in A 5% Implied Move, Which Is Surprisingly Low
“The market is pricing in plus or minus 5% in terms of that move. Right now that is less volatile than it’s been over the course of the past 8 and 12 quarters,” Kochuba said. Kochuba noted the historical average NVIDIA earnings move over the last 8 to 12 quarters is around 7%, so the current setup shows options traders less braced than the headline attention would suggest.
The full-chain put-call ratio sits at 0.58, with the August 28 expiration carrying 886,423 calls traded against 277,566 puts. Volume-to-open-interest leaders skew to upside strikes, including the September 9 $260 call at a ratio of 4 and the August 28 $390 call at roughly 3.41.
The Rate-Cut Trade Is Spreading Beyond Stocks
Kochuba also flagged a shift in fixed-income positioning that colors the backdrop. Bond market traders moved from put skew to bullish positioning over the past two weeks, in his read, with similar behavior visible in gold and Bitcoin.
“What we’re seeing now… suddenly shifted much more neutral to even leaning a little bit bullish in some of these assets. You can totally see people are kind of front-running the idea that rates are going to come down a little bit,“ he said, attributing part of the tone shift to recent Treasury Secretary jawboning on rates.
Setup Investors Are Watching Into Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia options are pricing a move of roughly 5%, comfortably below the stock’s recent earnings average. But with 803 ETFs carrying Nvidia shares, even an ordinary reaction for the chipmaker could produce an extraordinary ripple across the market. Kochuba’s point is that the report will impact where the entire market trades on Thursday.
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