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    Home»Investments»Where investment opportunities will be in the second half of 2024
    Investments

    Where investment opportunities will be in the second half of 2024

    August 5, 2024


    A
    panel at the ALIS Summer Update discusses what transactions are
    happening now and what it will take for the deal flow pipeline to open up.

    DALLAS — When asked what types
    of hotel transactions are currently happening in 2024, Austin Brooks said
    where the debt is most efficient. “We’re seeing this barbell
    dynamic where we’re churning out, on the larger side, let’s call it over $100
    million, more trophy [types of hotels] that have seen a huge pickup in the
    second quarter,” said the managing director for the Dallas office of Hodges Ward Elliott. “On the other side of the spectrum — let’s call it under
    $50 million — and certainly under $20 million, we’re seeing that there’s just
    been a huge [amount of deals] that have dominated the trades over the last
    couple of years. The buyers in that space are generally either closing all cash, or with a small equity checks, or accessing local relationships with banks where
    they’re generally signing personal guarantees to get the best rates.”

    Brooks participated in an
    “Investment and Development Insights” panel at the ALIS Summer Update on
    July 25 at the Kimpton Pittman Hotel in Dallas. Other panelists included Mehul
    Patel, CEO and managing partner of Dallas-based NewcrestImage; Pinal Patel,
    secretary of AAHOA; and John Schellhase, assistant vice president of development
    and investments for Atlanta-based Peachtree Group.

    When assessing the current
    market, Mehul Patel said there is still a lot of private capital available in the market. His NewcrestImage has bought and sold almost 300 hotels
    in the last 10 years, has several investments in hospitality companies and even
    owns a bank, Dallas-based American Bank.

    Quote

    What’s happened in the last 12 months is that capital is available, but people thought instead of investing in equity, they should do debt, and that didn’t pan out because fewer transactions happened.

    Mehul Patel

    “What’s happened in the last 12
    months is that capital is available, but people thought instead of investing in
    equity, they should do debt, and that didn’t pan out because fewer transactions
    happened,” he said.

    Patel said investors
    didn’t want expensive debt and wanted to raise equity. But a lot of capital remained on the sidelines. Now, he senses a shift happening. “What you’ll see in the next
    four months is that capital will be very aggressive,” he said. “If two or three
    rate cuts happen, the people who think they want to deploy that capital will
    convert to equity, and that gap is where [investors] will come in.”

    Pinal Patel has extensive
    experience converting and repositioning hotels, especially from independent to
    brand. He said one thing is usually most important in that type of development. “Location is number one. We’ve
    done a few projects where we’re going from a brand to an independent, and the
    infrastructure is already there for the plumbing and electrical. It’s costing
    us much less to reposition that asset,” he said. “What we’re also doing in some
    markets is going from an independent to a branded hotel, and that’s
    specifically because of location as well… We’re noticing that in some of these
    markets, it doesn’t matter whether it’s a brand or not. [It’s more about] the
    property itself, when it’s positioned the right way, and where it’s located.”

    When asked about which markets
    are emerging right now around the U.S., Schellhase mentioned a specific
    strategy working across the SMILE region (which runs from the Southwest through
    Texas, Florida and the Carolinas). “Over the past 10 years, urban
    infill has generally been less developed just because of where office and
    multifamily were,” he said. “If you look at our pipeline today, we’re
    approaching SMILE states and urban infill at a higher rate than we previously
    have.”

    Schellhase said because office
    development is low and multifamily has slowed down materially, hotels are
    presenting an opportunity to become the best use in markets, especially where
    RevPAR is outpacing construction costs. “[They] seem to be more
    complicated and high-capitalization deals. But if you can figure out what that
    looks like, we think there’s a really interesting scenario, particularly where
    we see that some of the REITs are bringing forward takeouts. If you figure all
    that out, we think there’s an interesting opportunity there.”



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