Investors looking to invest in debt mutual funds may want to focus on short-duration strategies as interest rates are expected to rise further. Axis Mutual Fund expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to tighten monetary policy by another 50–75 basis points in the near term. Against this backdrop, the fund house favours high-quality corporate bonds with three-to-five-year maturities and short-duration, accrual-focused investment strategies.
In its November 2026 fixed-income outlook, Axis Mutual Fund said bond yields could remain volatile over the next three to six months as markets respond to domestic and global developments. It expects the operative policy rate to move towards 6–6.25%, although the pace of further tightening will depend on inflation, crude oil prices and economic growth.
Why are bond yields rising?
The 10-year government security (G-Sec) yield rose from 7.18% at the end of September to 7.41% at the end of October, according to the report. Axis Mutual Fund attributed the increase to elevated crude oil prices, tighter domestic liquidity, foreign investor outflows and a more restrictive monetary policy.
The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, its first rate hike since February 2023, and shifted its policy stance from neutral to calibrated tightening. It also raised its FY27 consumer price index (CPI) inflation forecast to 5.2%, while projecting GDP growth at 7.1%.
Axis expects bond yields to trade in a broad range over the next three to six months, with intermittent volatility. While a meaningful part of the anticipated monetary tightening appears to have been reflected in market yields, the direction of rates will remain sensitive to domestic inflation and global developments.
Which debt fund strategies does Axis favour?
Axis Mutual Fund prefers high-quality corporate bonds in the three-to-five-year maturity segment. It believes this part of the yield curve offers an attractive balance between carry and relatively contained duration risk.
The fund house also favours short-duration, accrual-focused target-maturity strategies. Elevated yields at the shorter end of the curve, it said, offer an opportunity to earn relatively attractive accrual without taking excessive duration risk.
According to the report, the fourth quarter of FY27 could provide a favourable window to build exposure to high-quality, short-duration fixed-income instruments. Investors could selectively add duration as market opportunities arise.
When does Axis see an opportunity in longer-duration investments?
Axis Mutual Fund sees the 10-year G-Sec yield of around 7.55–7.60% as an attractive entry point from a medium-term perspective, particularly for investors looking to gradually increase duration. However, it recommends staggered accumulation over the next three months instead of investing the entire amount at once, given the possibility of near-term fluctuations in yields.
The fund house favours a tactical duration stance in government securities but remains cautious on long-duration state development loans (SDLs). Elevated state borrowing and an unfavourable demand-supply balance could keep yields high and limit meaningful spread compression. Risks linked to the Eighth Pay Commission, softer tax collections and subsidy pressures also warrant caution, it said.
Axis has identified the duration of the West Asia conflict, crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, excessive currency depreciation and hawkish US Federal Reserve policy as key risks to its outlook.
For investors, Axis favours high-quality corporate bonds in the three-to-five-year segment and short-duration, accrual-focused strategies in the current environment. It sees scope to add duration selectively as yields become more attractive, rather than making an indiscriminate move towards long-duration investments.