Where did you invest recent years’ bonuses? If it was barrels of oil, then congratulations. If it was property in Dubai, you are not alone.
Multiple senior traders in both Dubai and London say colleagues are reeling after investing previous bonuses in off-plan property in Dubai. As house prices in the Emirates fall, they are now facing a harsh reality.
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“It’s not funny. People are people are being wiped out by this,” says one Goldman Sachs trader, speaking off the record. “People are freaking out,” confirms a senior rates trader in London. “They’ve all bought off-plan property which is going to be unsellable. It was going up in price, so there are people who bought over 10 units as an investment.”
Off-plan property investing has been “Dubai’s game for over a decade,” says one senior trader who relocated to the Emirate from London. Off-plan investing accounted for 60% of Dubai’s property sales before the war in the Middle East and an entire industry sprung up to cater for the demand. Off plan purchases typically demand multiple payments: upfront, after meeting construction milestones and upon completion. Despite the change in regional circumstances, traders say they’re still being asked to meet their commitments: “Developers are forcing contracts clauses and people are still forced to pay. No delay in payment is allowed.”
The impact of the war on Dubai property prices is unclear. Pessimists are pointing to a 30%+ decline in Dubai’s real estate index since the war began. Others insist the decline is more like 20%. Either way, it’s a big change on 2025, when the value of real estate transactions in Dubai rose by 20% on the expectation of continuously rising prices. Knight Frank says Dubai was the most popular emirate for property purchases by high net worth individuals last year. Many buyers were international and based in India, the UK, Saudi Arabia or Singapore.
One senior trader who relocated to Dubai says colleagues relocating to the emirate got greedy. “People who are new to Dubai saw this as a free money wheel,” he says. “Prices went sky high after COVID and people bought into this with leverage. There were people running in and buying whole floors. If they can’t make their first tranche of repayments they will be in trouble. At the least they will now lose their deposits.”
Dubai is no stranger to property crashes. Property prices there rose by 70% between 2021 and 2025, but they fell by 50% in the two years after 2008. Since then, Dubai rulers have since passed regulations to ensure projects are better funded: “Building costs are now covered, so at least these properties will be finished and it won’t be like 2008 again,” says the trader.
Some finance professionals in Dubai are still interested in buying there and are hopeful of finding a bargain. “I haven’t bought yet, but I was looking,” says one hedge fund manager. “I’m interested in Emirate Hills, Palm Jumeirah or Al Barari. Prices are more stable for premium property. If I can get a 10%-15% discount, I’ll be happy.”
However, even a 10-15% discount may be insufficient if the war continues or an unstable ceasefire is reached. “The real question is whether this kills the dream of a tax-free, clean, safe paradise that offers everything in the world for a price,” says the senior trader. “People are suddenly questioning whether it can ever be safe here, just 40 miles from Iran.”
For the moment, many of the bombs have been intercepted. But the senior trader says much depends upon how long the war goes on for. “There are a lot of diverse expats here, from Africa, Asia and the Arab Spring Middle East, so people have a thicker skin than elsewhere, but if this goes on, the wealthy will move because of the inconvenience.”
If that happens, the 30%+ losses on off-plan properties will be crystallised. If not, traders and hedge fund managers who’ve bought multiple highly levered properties might live to tell the tale. “I don’t think Dubai property is over with,” reflects the trader, ever hopeful.
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