Citi reported that global investors raised their holdings of US-issuer corporate bonds by $11.1 billion in June. Year-to-date, foreign demand reached $172 billion, matching the inflow pace seen in the previous years of 2020 and 2023.
This robust demand has played a significant role in absorbing the net supply of US investment-grade bonds, with foreign investors accounting for 44% of the total, surpassing the average of 42% from 2016.
The trend of foreign investment continued into July, with private investors purchasing $27 billion of long-term US Treasuries in June, while foreign officials remained net sellers, albeit with reduced sales from $15 billion in May to $2.2 billion in June.
Total foreign private purchases in the first half of the year amounted to $352 billion, driven by slowing supply in G10 countries and attractive yields offered by US Treasuries.
In the T-bills market, foreign investors bought $6.2 billion in June, with a notable $12 billion increase in holdings by Japanese officials. Despite an overall net increase of $72 billion in foreign US Treasury holdings in June, Citi applied a negative valuation adjustment due to a rally in 5-year US Treasuries during the month.
European investors, led by France with a $26 billion investment, continued strong demand for long-term US Treasuries, marking the ninth consecutive month of net purchases. Canada followed as the second-largest buyer at $18 billion.
These purchases are attributed to several factors, including low supply in European government bonds, the yield differential between US Treasuries and bund yields, and elevated energy prices.
Conversely, the Cayman Islands emerged as the largest seller of long-term US Treasuries in June, with sales amounting to $19 billion. This activity is likely linked to hedge fund strategies and the tightening of swap spreads.
Japanese officials, after selling T-Bills in May to fund foreign exchange interventions, repurchased $12 billion in June, likely financed by the sale of long-term US Treasuries. Japan was the largest seller of US Treasuries for the month.
However, the pace of sales from Japanese officials is not expected to continue as the rate has recently declined.
China, having been a net seller of US Treasuries in the first half of the year, was the biggest official buyer in June at $7 billion, followed by India at $5 billion.
With the exchange rate returning to levels seen at the start of the year, Chinese officials are anticipated to repurchase some of the US Treasuries sold earlier. India’s consistent buying trend over the past five months is expected to persist.
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