(Bloomberg) — Some investors are eager to buy municipal bonds before supply tapers off because of the elections.
Supply is expected to drop next month: JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists see tax-exempt issuance declining 70% to $7 billion in the first two weeks of November from the last two weeks of October.
Since muni bonds have been offering higher yields after a recent selloff, investors may want to take advantage of the elevated issuance this week, the strategists led by Peter DeGroot said. Municipal benchmark bond yields inched up again on Tuesday, rising as much as four basis points. The JPMorgan strategists expect yields to drop by the end of 2024 — making this week a good time to buy.
Lyle Fitterer, co-lead of municipals at Baird, echoes the sentiment, saying he wants to make sure new money coming his way is mostly invested going into the elections.
“If we have new money that we need to put to work, we would like to get it put to work this week,” he said.
On the other hand, American Century Investments is largely staying the course. Joe Gotelli, senior portfolio manager at the firm, is instead communicating with clients about the impact of potential changes in the tax code under a new administration. Most muni bonds pay interest that’s tax free, which means the securities can look more valuable under higher taxes or less so if there are tax cuts.
Others, like Vikram Rai, head of muni strategy at Wells Fargo & Co., are more cautious heading into next week. For Rai, that’s not just because of the elections, but also because of jobs data being released on Nov. 1 and the Federal Reserve’s rates decision on Nov. 7.
“We believe the municipal calendar is heavy in light of investor agita around key events above, which might keep them on the sidelines,” he wrote in a recent note.
Chad Farrington, co-head of municipal bond strategy at DWS, is also focusing more on economic data. But unlike Rai, he does think the higher yields muni bonds are offering make it a good time to buy.
“We haven’t held ourselves back from buying just because of the elections,” he said.
There are other signs that investors aren’t being scared off by the election. Flows into muni ETFs picked up in October, with the products seeing $2.8 billion of inflows so far this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Vanguard Group Inc.’s VTEB — the second biggest muni ETF — saw an inflow of $219 million on Monday.
–With assistance from Amanda Albright.
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