US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be seeing heavy outflows lately, but the broader picture tells a different story.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs peaked at $63 billion in October and now stand at about $53 billion, even after months of redemptions.
“That’s NET NET +$53b in only two years,” Balchunas wrote on X, sharing data compiled by fellow analyst James Seyffart.
The figure far exceeds Bloomberg’s early projections, which had called for inflows of $5 billion to $15 billion over that time frame.
In other words, recent withdrawals haven’t erased the bigger success story. Despite Bitcoin’s roughly 50% pullback from its highs, institutional money hasn’t fled at the same pace, suggesting many investors are holding for the long term rather than panic selling.
The US spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in early 2024 and quickly became a dominant force in the market. Bitcoin went on to hit new all-time highs ahead of its April 2024 halving event, breaking historical trends, with ETF accumulation accelerating through 2025 and peaking in October as prices surged past $126,000.
The launches are widely considered among the most successful in US ETF history. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, in particular, became the fastest ETF ever to surpass $70 billion in assets, reaching the milestone in under a year.
Related: BlackRock sees record quarter for iShares ETFs as Bitcoin, Ether demand surges
Bitcoin faces an uncertain 2026 as cycle debate intensifies
To be sure, 2026 is shaping up to be a challenging year for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market, following a renewed sell-off in late January and early February that sent the biggest cryptocurrency to about $60,000.
Investor sentiment remains fragile, prompting some analysts to argue that the latest bull market, consistent with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, may have run its course.
Others contend the cycle is simply evolving. They argue that a longer business cycle and changing macro conditions could be stretching Bitcoin’s traditional rhythm rather than ending it.
Bitwise analysts Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen go further, suggesting Bitcoin may be breaking from its long-standing four-year pattern altogether due to the growing influence of institutional capital.
“The wave of institutional capital that began entering the space in 2024 is likely to accelerate in 2026,” the analysts said, pointing to expanded access on major wealth platforms such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.
Despite rapid institutional adoption through spot ETFs, Bitcoin appeared to lose retail attention in 2025 as investors gravitated toward other high-growth themes, according to data from crypto market maker Wintermute.
Related: Bitcoin mining’s 2026 reckoning: AI pivots, margin pressure and a fight to survive