On Monday, Balchunas discussed the significance of the US BTC-spot ETF market, stating,
“I think if you take the ETFs out of the picture, the price of Bitcoin is like $20,000. Because it was 30,000 […] when Blackrock (BLK) filed. They started to go up because, oh, BlackRock’s coming in. Then they launched, there was little silver news, but it hung tough. Now it went up a lot because of the flows. […] You unwind all that, you’re at 30k. But you still have Mt. Gox, and somebody’s other, in Germany, and who’s there to buy it? So, I think the ETFs should be seen as nothing short of a godsend.”
US Economic Calendar
On Wednesday, August 14, the crucial US CPI Report could influence US BTC-spot ETF market flows and BTC price trends.
Softer-than-expected US inflation could cement multiple Q4 2024 Fed rate cuts, possibly boosting demand for riskier assets.
Economists expect the annual core inflation rate to fall from 3.2% in June to 3.1% in July.
BTC Price Trends
Softer US inflation figures could support a BTC move toward $65,000. However, better-than-expected US jobless data on Thursday, August 15, could ease fears of a US recession and signal a BTC move toward $70,000.
Conversely, a higher inflation a numbers and a spike in US jobless claims could send BTC toward $55,000.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC sat above the 200-day EMA while remaining below the 50-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
A BTC return to $62,000 would support a move toward the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could bring the $64,000 resistance level into play.
US inflation data and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends need consideration on Wednesday.
On the other hand, a drop below the $60,365 support level could give the bears a run at the 200-day EMA. A fall through the 200 could bring the $55,000 handle into play.
With a 48.03 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may drop to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.